What’s the Real Spread?
Oct 8th 2008Bull MoosePolitics
Two polls for 10-5 to 10-7 tell two very different stories. Which is it, Obama +11 – a landslide – or Obama + 2 – a statistical tie?
The Reuters poll (Obama +11) uses registered voters, where the Zogby poll (Obama +2) uses likely voters. In the past likely voters have been the gold standard, but that may not hold this time.
My guess, looking at all of the polls and thinking about the Bradley Effect (small, but I’m willing to bet it is still worth at least a point to McCain), it’s probably really Obama +4 or so, meaning Obama is in good shape, but it is definitly close enough to change. (I remember pundits like Dick Morris declaring Kerry the winner in early October 2004 when Bush had a 2-point lead.) Of course that number doesn’t really matter. It’s the numbers in Ohio and Florida and the other battleground states.
Frankly this is the most boring tight election ever and I can’t wait for it to be done.
4 Comments »
Bob on 08 Oct 2008 at 1:20 pm #
Quoting Dick Morris is a sure way of losing me as a reader. Maybe that is your motive.
The man should not have a television job. Throw enough stuff at the wall, some will stick. I could have sworn he said Condi and Hillary were going to represent their tickets . . .
As for me, I will be surprised if Obama doesn’t win this.
Bull Moose on 08 Oct 2008 at 1:31 pm #
I agree with you on Dick Morris. During ‘04 he changed his mind on who was going to be the sure-fire winner every week. It was ridiculous, which is why I quoted him because it is funny to me that the public still considers him an expert. (Yes, I remember the Condi vs. Hilary book.)
Did I hear Morris was going to call the World Series with Joe Buck this year?
I’d also be somewhat surprised if McCain wins at this point unless the economic crisis is knocked out of the news by something like Israel bombing Iran or some other security issue.
I thought McCain had it until the credit crunch exploded. Then I think McCain had an opportunity to move ahead anyway by opposing the bailout and coming up with a plan of his own, but he blew it.
Dick Morris on 08 Oct 2008 at 2:13 pm #
First of all I’d like to say that both Hillary and Condi have very pretty feet.
Secondly I am an expert, how else could Clinton get elected if it wasn’t for me?
Bob on 09 Oct 2008 at 6:30 am #
If Morris were ever to team up with Buck, I would cease to be a baseball fan.